Créditos da imagem: VerdaoWeb
Título, Libertadores ou Rebaixamento?
Após os jogos realizados neste sábado, 27/10 (véspera do 2º turno das Eleições), as probabilidades de cada clube ser campeão, classificar-se para a próxima Libertadores ou ser rebaixado para a Série B do ano que vem são as seguintes:
Na coluna marcada com (*), estão as probabilidades de cada clube se classificar à Libertadores por meio das vagas-padrão destinadas aos seis primeiros colocados do Campeonato Brasileiro (G6). A coluna identificada com (**), por outro lado, trata das probabilidades calculadas contabilizando-se todas as hipóteses e caminhos possíveis (Copa do Brasil, Libertadores 2018, Sul-Americana, G7, G8 e G9).
A partir dessa tabela, pode-se dividir os clubes em grupos, de acordo com os horizontes possíveis de cada um:
• Palmeiras: virtualmente garantido na Libertadores e com uma mão e quase quatro dedos da outra na taça;
• Flamengo e Internacional: virtualmente garantidos na Libertadores e ainda podendo sonhar com o título;
• São Paulo e Grêmio: virtualmente na Libertadores e virtualmente fora do título;
• Atlético MG, Santos e Atlético PR: título só por milagre, mas com chances concretas de chegar à Libertadores (no caso do Atlético Paranaense, mais por meio da Copa Sul-Americana do que propriamente do Campeonato Brasileiro);
• Cruzeiro: está apenas esperando o ano acabar (já está na Libertadores por ter sido campeão da Copa do Brasil e tem chances remotas de título e de rebaixamento);
• Fluminense: fora do título, chances remotas de rebaixamento e de chegar à Libertadores pelo Campeonato Brasileiro (a esperança é se classificar pela Copa Sul-Americana);
• Corinthians, Bahia e Ceará: chances remotas de Libertadores e com chances pequenas de rebaixamento (mas convém não descuidar);
• Vasco, Botafogo, América MG e Chapecoense: brigando diretamente contra o rebaixamento;
• Sport e Vitória: grande risco de rebaixamento;
• Paraná: na UTI, só se salva por milagre.
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